Ce qu’il faut retenir
For the first time in decades, the Western Sahara dispute shows movement. The Polisario Front, the liberation movement that has long demanded full independence, now says it could accept Morocco’s autonomy blueprint if Sahrawis endorse it in a referendum (AFP).
The shift emerges ahead of a crucial 30 October UN Security Council session. Washington, Paris and London already back Rabat’s offer, and Moscow’s position appears to be evolving.
US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff told CBS that a peace accord between Algeria and Morocco could materialise “within 60 days”, underscoring the White House’s activist posture.
Diplomatic momentum in a 60-day window
Donald Trump’s administration frames the issue as the latest test case for its deal-making diplomacy. Witkoff argued that the region is infected by “contagious peace”, signalling confidence that the parties will converge quickly.
The timeline dovetails with the Security Council calendar. A positive signal from New York could grant the US initiative multilateral backing, giving Rabat and the Polisario the political cover required to speak directly.
Yet the 60-day horizon also tightens pressure. Neither side wants to be blamed for failure, particularly after half a century of stalemate that has frustrated Sahrawi aspirations and complicated Maghreb integration.
The referendum red line
Polisario Foreign Minister Mohamed Salem Ould Salek told AFP that any pact must be ratified through “a free association referendum”. The nuance matters: the movement concedes that full independence is not the only path, but insists popular consent remains non-negotiable.
Rabat maintains that its autonomy plan already guarantees local governance while preserving Moroccan sovereignty. The gap therefore shrinks to the modalities of a vote—who participates, how it is monitored, and what options are on the ballot.
Great-power geometry
The United States endorsed autonomy during Trump’s first term and shows no sign of reversing course. France and the United Kingdom, both permanent Council members, have now aligned, citing the plan’s ‘realism’.
Russia traditionally echoed Algeria’s insistence on a UN-led process, but improving ties with Washington and Rabat may soften its stance. A less obstructive Moscow could leave Algiers diplomatically isolated if it resists momentum.
Algeria, historical patron of the Polisario, has not reacted publicly to the movement’s overture. Silence may reflect deliberation over how to reconcile regional leadership ambitions with a potentially unpopular compromise.
Calendrier des négociations
The countdown starts with the 30 October Security Council debate. Should a consensus statement emerge, direct exploratory talks could follow in November, aiming to sketch an autonomy-referendum package before Witkoff’s 60-day marker expires in late December.
Acteurs clés
Besides Morocco, the Polisario and Algeria, three capitals will shape outcomes: Washington, which is driving the schedule; Paris, whose support signals European endorsement; and Moscow, the swing player whose veto power and regional interests could tip the scales.
Scénarios à l’horizon
Optimists foresee a phased roadmap: the Council blesses negotiations, the parties define electorate rolls under UN supervision, and a referendum on an autonomy statute follows within a fixed timeline, cooling tensions while unlocking economic cooperation.
A darker scenario looms if talks stall. Failure to capitalise on the present alignment could harden positions, fuel frustration among Sahrawi youth and complicate counter-terrorism in the Sahel, reminding diplomats that windows of opportunity seldom stay open indefinitely.
