South Africa’s strategic programme for Johannesburg
The presidency’s concept note frames three cross-cutting priorities: inclusive growth and industrialisation, food security, and governance of artificial intelligence and data. Officials position these themes as a bridge between the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and the G20’s traditional macro-financial mandate. Preparatory working groups have already convened on tourism, agriculture and digital policy, producing draft communiqués that emphasise debt sustainability, investment in green industrial value chains and ethical AI standards.
Continental expectations and domestic constraints
African observers expect the presidency to convert the AU’s new permanent seat into substantive influence on debt workouts, climate finance and vaccine manufacturing. Public consultations launched today invite civil-society proposals on these dossiers, signalling Pretoria’s intent to craft a pan-African rather than purely national agenda. Yet fiscal pressures at home—ranging from persistent power-supply disruptions to sluggish growth—limit South Africa’s capacity to fund summit logistics and model the policies it advocates.
Fractures in trans-Atlantic engagement
Diplomatic capital is further strained by Washington’s directive, issued 14 May 2025, instructing federal agencies to suspend engagement with all G20 processes hosted by South Africa. The measure follows earlier statements by the US Secretary of State rejecting participation on the grounds of alleged property-rights violations and anti-American sentiment. Pretoria has dismissed the allegations, but the withdrawal deprives negotiations of a major actor and risks fragmenting consensus on global debt architecture and climate finance.
Carbon-border adjustments and emerging-market pushback
Parallel tensions with the European Union over its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism complicate Pretoria’s trade agenda. South Africa argues that the levy undermines export competitiveness and contravenes World Trade Organization disciplines unless differential treatment for developing economies is secured. Recent research underscores the potential cost to African steel and cement exporters, while EU deliberations on exempting smaller emitters indicate a willingness to adjust the scheme but not to abandon it. The issue will test the presidency’s ability to reconcile climate ambition with equitable trade.
Navigating multilateralism beyond 2025
Despite these headwinds, the G20’s first African presidency retains the potential to reset expectations of the forum. If Pretoria can shepherd agreements on a more predictable debt-relief framework, a coherent roadmap for global food-system resilience and minimum AI governance principles, it will advance Africa’s voice in systemic rule-making. Success will depend on deft coalition-building with emerging-market partners, sustained engagement with sceptical developed economies and careful management of domestic political narratives in the run-up to the summit.
South Africa’s term, therefore, is more than a ceremonial milestone. It is a test of whether an African state can leverage its dual identity—as continental representative and middle-income economy—to broker pragmatic compromises at the apex of global economic diplomacy. The outcome will resonate long after the lights dim in Johannesburg, shaping Africa’s place in multilateral governance for the decade ahead.
