Ce qu’il faut retenir
Morocco has submitted to the United Nations a climate roadmap that would eliminate coal-fired power by 2040 and reduce national greenhouse-gas emissions 53 percent by 2035. The plan hinges on mobilising US$30 billion in external finance; without that support, Rabat keeps the coal-exit goal but sheds any binding deadline.
Context: Coal Dependence and Climate Ambition
Roughly 60 percent of Moroccan electricity still comes from burning imported coal, a reality that simultaneously inflates carbon output and exposes the grid to volatile international markets. The kingdom therefore faces the dual imperative of decarbonising its economy and securing more predictable energy supplies.
Over the past decade Morocco has cultivated a reputation as North Africa’s green pioneer, commissioning vast solar fields at Ouarzazate and expanding wind capacity along the Atlantic coast. Yet the dominance of coal means overall emissions continued to climb, prompting authorities to table an accelerated exit strategy ahead of COP30.
Financial Equation: the US$30 billion Test
The updated Nationally Determined Contribution is divided into an ‘unconditional’ segment that Rabat can fund domestically, and a ‘conditional’ suite of projects—chief among them the coal exit—that require concessional loans, grants and blended finance worth around US$30 billion.
Officials argue the figure reflects not only plant decommissioning, but also the build-out of grid infrastructure, storage systems and training programmes necessary to integrate large shares of variable renewables. They caution that without predictable inflows the 2040 deadline becomes an aspiration rather than a commitment.
Diplomatic Leverage before COP30
By announcing the target two years before leaders meet in Belém, Morocco positions itself as a constructive negotiator in forthcoming finance talks. Rabat can claim moral authority: it has already delivered several flagship mitigation projects despite middle-income status, and now signals readiness to do more if the global North honours prior funding pledges.
The move also aligns the kingdom with African peers calling for faster disbursement of the US$100 billion annual climate-finance promise. Moroccan diplomats hint that clarity on long-term support could unlock South-South technology transfers, reinforcing the continent’s negotiating bloc at COP30.
Domestic Energy Transition Dynamics
The coal exit blueprint relies on tripling installed renewable capacity by 2030, led by solar photovoltaics, concentrated solar power and on- and off-shore wind. Authorities are concurrently studying green hydrogen exports to leverage abundant sunshine and proximity to European markets.
Engineering challenges remain: variable generation already strains certain distribution nodes, while pumped-hydro and battery storage projects race against time. Yet planners argue that declining technology costs and regional interconnectors with Spain, Portugal and sub-Saharan neighbours can smooth variability and even position Morocco as a clean-power hub.
Actors: Government, Investors and Lenders
The Ministry of Energy steers policy, while the national utility ONEE manages legacy coal plants slated for retirement. Renewable tenders are overseen by MASEN, whose public-private model has attracted Gulf, European and Japanese capital. Domestic conglomerates such as Nareva and international heavyweights like EDF Renouvelables are already embedded in the pipeline.
Multilateral lenders—the African Development Bank, the World Bank and the European Investment Bank—signal interest in co-financing transmission upgrades. Meanwhile, climate-risk investors watch regulatory clarity on carbon pricing and subsidy reform that could determine long-term returns.
Scenarios to Watch
If Morocco secures most of the US$30 billion, coal retirements could begin early next decade, freeing foreign-exchange reserves and cutting annual emissions roughly 20 million tonnes by 2035; surplus renewables might be sold to Europe through future green-hydrogen corridors.
A partial-funding scenario would delay closures, forcing continued coal imports and higher abatement costs later. Nevertheless, officials emphasise that incremental progress—phasing out the most carbon-intensive units first and scaling renewables sequentially—remains feasible, preserving the strategic objective while granting flexibility on timing.
