Ce qu’il faut retenir
A surprise visit by Côte d’Ivoire’s Minister Delegate for African Integration, Adama Dosso, to Ouagadougou on 6 December has stirred cautious optimism in West African diplomatic circles.
It is the first high-level encounter between the neighbours since Captain Ibrahim Traoré seized power on 30 September 2022, and it may herald a gradual thaw after months of mutual suspicion, refugee pressure and security allegations.
A rare handshake in Ouagadougou
Both governments insist the talks were conducted in a spirit of candour. Dosso told reporters that family disagreements are best resolved at home, while Burkinabe Foreign Minister Karamoko Jean Marie Traoré praised the brotherly tone and called the encounter an important step toward calm relations.
The diplomatic choreography matters beyond Abidjan and Ouagadougou: Ivory Coast hosts an estimated 70,000 Burkinabe refugees, the two countries share porous borders targeted by jihadist groups, and the Economic Community of West African States is searching for a new equilibrium with its three Sahelian juntas.
From coup to cold shoulder
Relations plunged after Traoré’s coup, as Ouagadougou accused Abidjan of sheltering dissidents and allowing militants to operate rear bases on Ivorian soil, claims never documented publicly. Arrests on both sides amplified tension, and July’s prison death in Abidjan of pro-junta activist Alain Christophe Traoré, alias Alino Faso, deepened mistrust.
Saturday’s meeting therefore focused on confidence-building. Diplomats say technical committees will examine security coordination, refugee status determinations and judicial cooperation, with a view to presenting a first progress report early next year. Neither capital has yet disclosed concrete deadlines, but the decision to reopen a direct channel is itself significant.
Actors and incentives
For Ouagadougou, easing friction with a coastal neighbour offers economic oxygen at a time when international sanctions have strained supply lines. Abidjan, for its part, prefers quiet borders while it prepares for the 2025 presidential election and seeks to maintain its reputation as a logistics hub for landlocked Sahel markets.
Observers also detect a message to ECOWAS, which has struggled to balance punitive measures and dialogue with military regimes in Bamako, Niamey and Ouagadougou. By taking the initiative, Côte d’Ivoire shows it can manage neighbourhood disputes without waiting for regional or external mediation, a stance likely to resonate in Abuja.
Scenario mapping
Should the committees produce tangible deliverables, both sides could announce the resumption of joint border patrols and reactivate a dormant cross-border trade corridor linking Bobo-Dioulasso to Korhogo. Such practical wins would lower transaction costs for traders and demonstrate that political dialogue can translate into security dividends for local communities.
A less optimistic scenario would see talks stalled by new security incidents or populist rhetoric. Yet analysts note that neither leadership benefits from prolonged animosity, and the surprise visit suggests a political calculus that pragmatism outweighs grievance. Domestic audiences, hard-pressed by inflation and insecurity, may reward gestures that ease pressure.
Human security and refugee dimension
The refugee file remains central. Ivory Coast’s humanitarian agencies shoulder schooling, health and housing costs for tens of thousands of Burkinabe fleeing jihadist violence in Soum and Oudalan provinces. Any repatriation plan will require robust security guarantees and, diplomats caution, must avoid the impression of forced return that could breach international norms.
Burkina Faso, meanwhile, seeks cross-border intelligence to help stem improvised explosive device attacks along routes toward the Ivorian frontier. Sharing data on suspect movements could strengthen both states’ counter-terror capabilities and reassure trucking unions that commercial arteries will stay open during the critical cocoa and cotton export seasons.
Timeline to watch
Officials hinted that a follow-up session could coincide with ECOWAS’s next ordinary summit, expected in Abuja within the first quarter of 2024. Whether a bilateral communiqué emerges by then will serve as a litmus test of the sincerity displayed in Ouagadougou and of West Africa’s capacity to navigate its turbulent transition.
Regional implications
The initiative may also influence Nigeria’s handling of Niger’s junta and shape Ghana’s calculus toward Mali. A precedent of bilateral détente, struck without compromising constitutional principles, could offer ECOWAS chair Bola Tinubu a template that reconciles firmness with selective engagement when the bloc reviews its sanctions architecture in early 2024.
What success would look like
Ultimately, the success of the Ouagadougou encounter will rest on implementation rather than symbolism. If joint patrols roll, refugees feel safer and inflammatory rhetoric fades from social media, the Dosso mission may be remembered as a discreet yet pivotal catalyst in resetting one of West Africa’s most significant bilateral relationships.
