The Sahel, a region historically characterised by its intricate tapestry of alliances, conflicts, and colonial legacies, is once again at the epicentre of geopolitical upheaval. The recent downing of a Malian drone by Algerian forces near the border town of Tin Zaouatine has not only strained bilateral relations but also illuminated the shifting sands of regional power dynamics. This incident, while ostensibly a security breach, is symptomatic of deeper fissures rooted in historical mistrust, divergent strategic interests, and the evolving security architecture of the Sahel.
Historical Context: A Legacy of Ambiguity and Mistrust
The Algeria-Mali relationship has long been marked by a delicate balance of cooperation and suspicion. Algeria’s role as a mediator in Mali’s internal conflicts, particularly during the 1990s Tuareg rebellions and the 2015 Algiers Accord, positioned it as a key regional actor. However, this involvement has often been perceived by Bamako as self-serving, with Algeria accused of harbouring sympathies for certain rebel factions to safeguard its own security interests. The dissolution of the 2015 Accord by Mali in January 2024 further exacerbated tensions, signalling a departure from Algeria’s diplomatic orbit and a move towards alternative alliances.
The Drone Incident: Catalyst or Consequence?
On April 1, 2025, the Algerian military reported the interception and destruction of a Malian drone that allegedly violated its airspace. Mali, in turn, contended that the drone was operating within its sovereign territory, accusing Algeria of unwarranted aggression. This event precipitated a series of retaliatory measures, including the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the closure of airspace between the two nations. While the incident itself is significant, it serves more as a manifestation of underlying strategic divergences than a standalone provocation.
Strategic Divergences: Competing Visions for the Sahel
Algeria’s foreign policy has traditionally emphasised non-intervention and regional stability, often advocating for political solutions to conflicts. In contrast, Mali’s recent pivot towards military solutions, exemplified by its engagement with Russian private military contractors and acquisition of Turkish drones, reflects a more assertive stance. This divergence is further accentuated by Mali’s withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) alongside Burkina Faso and Niger, signalling a shift towards a new security paradigm that challenges Algeria’s traditional influence.
Regional Implications: A Fragmented Security Architecture
The Algeria-Mali rift has broader implications for the Sahel’s security landscape. The mutual recriminations and diplomatic fallout risk undermining coordinated efforts to combat transnational threats such as terrorism and organised crime. Furthermore, the fragmentation of regional alliances complicates the operational effectiveness of initiatives like the G5 Sahel Joint Force and the Comité d’état-major opérationnel conjoint (CEMOC), both of which rely on multilateral cooperation. The crisis also opens avenues for external actors, notably Russia and Turkey, to expand their influence, potentially reshaping the region’s geopolitical contours.
Navigating a Path Forward
The Algeria-Mali crisis underscores the fragility of regional relations in the Sahel and the complexities inherent in balancing national interests with collective security imperatives. Addressing this rift requires a recommitment to dialogue, confidence-building measures, and inclusive frameworks that accommodate the diverse security concerns of all stakeholders. As the region grapples with multifaceted challenges, a cohesive and cooperative approach remains imperative to ensure stability and sustainable development.
