Ce qu’il faut retenir
Speaker Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko spent 6-10 November 2025 in Moscow discussing energy, mining and fisheries cooperation with senior Russian parliamentarians and officials (RFI, 10 Nov 2025).
The Russian embassy in Antananarivo hailed “promising axes of cooperation”, while Madagascar’s National Assembly announced a Russian business delegation for early 2026, signalling concrete follow-up to the talks.
Contexte
Madagascar’s vast offshore gas prospects and onshore graphite, nickel and rare earth deposits have long attracted external suitors. The island nation remains heavily reliant on Western development finance, yet its leaders periodically seek diversified partnerships to soften conditionalities attached to donor aid.
Russia, positioning itself as an alternative provider of capital and security training in Africa, intensified outreach after its 2023-2024 grain diplomacy campaign. Randrianasoloniaiko’s sporting ties and public defence of Russian athletes since 2022 created a natural political bridge.
Calendrier
The November trip followed President Michael Randrianirina’s early interview with Sputnik in January 2025, and the reception of the new Russian ambassador in March. A map produced by the Institute for Indian Ocean Studies illustrates the growing frequency of bilateral visits since 2024.
According to Assembly officials, a Russian economic mission will arrive in Antananarivo during the first quarter of 2026 to screen energy infrastructure and port modernisation opportunities. A fisheries framework agreement is said to be in draft form for signature before mid-year.
Acteurs
On the Malagasy side, Randrianasoloniaiko led a delegation of parliamentary committee chairs specialising in energy and natural resources. His leverage stems from a commanding majority in the lower house and from his presidency of the African Judo Union, which offers soft-power reach beyond politics.
Russia fielded Duma vice-chair Viktoria Abramchenko, Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin and executives from Rosgeo and RusFishing. A photo released by the Russian embassy shows the Speaker and Abramchenko against a backdrop of the two nations’ flags, underscoring the ceremonial weight attached to legislative diplomacy.
Scénarios
If Russian investors secure minority stakes in Madagascar’s offshore blocks, Antananarivo could bargain for technology transfers and payment in hard currency, diversifying beyond traditional Asian offtakers. A graphic by the African Energy Chamber projects a 12 % rise in Malagasy LNG exports by 2030 under that scenario.
Alternatively, Western creditors may harden their stance, delaying budget-support tranches should they perceive a geopolitical drift. Diplomats interviewed in Antananarivo warn that “commitments taken by an individual politician can be misconstrued as state policy”, yet note the presidency’s public courting of both camps.
A middle-ground outcome would see Madagascar leverage Russian interest to negotiate better terms with Bretton Woods institutions while maintaining its non-aligned branding. In any case, parliamentary diplomacy has emerged as a nimble instrument for Antananarivo to test new partnerships with limited immediate cost.
