Ce qu’il faut retenir
Washington is hosting discreet discussions with Sudan’s regular army and the Forces of Rapid Support. American adviser Massad Boulos wants an immediate humanitarian pause and a political negotiation. The capture of El-Fasher by the RSF frames the urgency. Researcher Thierry Vircoulon warns that little suggests this initiative will succeed where others faltered.
Fall of El-Fasher Raises Stakes
The city of El-Fasher fell to the RSF ten days ago, shifting the military balance and concentrating international concern on civilian safety. Its loss demonstrated the paramilitary’s reach beyond isolated skirmishes, sharpening calls for a cease-fire that can open humanitarian corridors and prevent further urban collapse.
Inside Washington’s Proposal
Senior Adviser for Arab and African Affairs Massad Boulos is engaging both camps in the U.S. capital. His roadmap is deliberately incremental: first, a short humanitarian truce to stop the shelling, then structured dialogue on power sharing and security. Washington believes sequencing may lower distrust that has repeatedly blocked comprehensive deals.
Army–Paramilitary Calculus
Both parties weigh cost and benefit in real time. The army must decide whether a pause helps it regroup or cedes momentum to the RSF. For the RSF, a lull could legitimise recent gains yet risk international scrutiny. That calculus informs every corridor conversation overseen by Boulos.
Expert Doubts Linger
Thierry Vircoulon, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations, voices caution. He sees no clear reason for the current track to triumph where previous rounds stumbled. His skepticism highlights a pattern: external mediation often struggles when domestic actors see battlefield advantage as the surest route to leverage.
Context
The Sudanese conflict now features two principal formations: the national army and the RSF. Their rivalry dates to divergent command structures and resource networks, erupting in open confrontation that engulfed El-Fasher. Humanitarian needs soared, prompting Washington’s latest foray into shuttle diplomacy led by Boulos.
Calendrier
Talks convened shortly after El-Fasher’s capture, underlining a compressed timetable. The United States hopes to secure a humanitarian pause in the immediate term. Only after that would a political dialogue unfold, according to officials close to the process. No public deadline has been announced, but fatigue on the ground imposes urgency.
Acteurs
Massad Boulos represents the American channel. On the Sudanese side, uniformed officers speak for the national army while RSF delegates defend paramilitary positions. Analysts such as Thierry Vircoulon observe from abroad, providing informed yet cautious commentary on feasibility. Civilian voices remain largely excluded at this stage.
Scenarios
Three broad outcomes emerge. A best-case scenario sees a cease-fire take hold, easing humanitarian access and paving a structured political sequence. A middling path produces a short pause that unravels, sliding back into urban warfare. The worst case is outright collapse of talks, encouraging further offensives around remaining strategic hubs.
What a Truce Could Unlock
Even a brief cessation of hostilities could allow aid convoys into El-Fasher and surrounding areas. It might also create diplomatic space for broader regional engagement. Yet without mutual confidence, any reprieve remains fragile. That fragility is precisely what fuels Vircoulon’s skepticism and underscores the weight on Boulos’s shoulders.
