UN mission underscores fragile gains
Jean-Pierre Lacroix left Bangui convinced that the Central African Republic has, at last, a narrow window for a peaceful ballot. His assessment, delivered after four intense days of talks with government, opposition and civil society, balanced optimism over security gains with caution about the country’s lingering volatility.
The visit came less than a month before the 28 December general elections, the first nationwide test since the 2019 Political Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation. Lacroix’s core message was unequivocal: “There have been significant advances, and the United Nations will stand by the authorities to safeguard a free and secure vote,” he said on departure.
Disarmament delivers visible dividends
Minusca reports that more than 1 000 combatants surrendered weapons in 2020, a figure Lacroix called “concrete evidence that the peace deal is biting.” The demobilisation has allowed state officials to redeploy in prefectures long ruled by armed groups, a prerequisite for credible polling stations outside Bangui.
Security analysts in Bangui note that the newly opened corridors have reduced checkpoint taxation and improved food deliveries. Yet pockets of resistance remain, particularly in the north-east, where rival militias still trade accusations. Lacroix urged commanders who have not signed the pact to “seize the momentum before it closes.”
Budget cut tests Minusca’s agility
The upbeat tone is tempered by a 15 % slash in Minusca’s budget after several UN member states fell behind on contributions. Lacroix confirmed the mission will trim both military and civilian staff but insisted that electoral security “will not be compromised.”
Observers worry about overstretch: 12 800 peacekeepers already secure a territory larger than France. Reductions could affect quick-reaction companies and community-liaison officers who collect early warnings of violence. Minusca planners are therefore concentrating forces around high-risk districts and using surveillance drones to offset thinner patrol grids.
Fighting hate speech, not just firefights
The mission’s mandate now places digital disinformation alongside mortar shells as threats to stability. During electoral periods, inflammatory rhetoric spreads faster than convoys. Minusca is partnering with local radio networks and religious leaders to counter rumours that could ignite communal flashpoints.
Civil society organisations welcomed the initiative, though some journalists asked for clearer guidelines to avoid perceptions of censorship. Lacroix responded that the aim is “to amplify credible voices, not to silence debate,” stressing that a peaceful vote rests on trust as much as troop deployments.
Regional stakes for ECCAS and Congo-Brazzaville
Central Africa’s security architecture will be judged on 28 December as closely as the CAR government. Brazzaville, current host of several ECCAS working groups, has quietly facilitated contacts between Bangui and reluctant signatories of the 2019 accord, according to diplomatic sources.
A stable CAR would unlock trade routes from the port of Pointe-Noire through Cameroon to South Sudan, lowering insurance premiums that weigh on regional commerce. Conversely, a relapse into conflict could spill fighters across porous borders, forcing neighbours, including Congo-Brazzaville, to tighten frontier patrols and divert funds from domestic priorities.
Looking beyond election day
Even a flawless vote cannot, by itself, consolidate peace. The incoming administration will still face the Herculean task of integrating ex-combatants into viable livelihoods while reforming a cash-strapped security sector. International partners, Lacroix warned, must avoid “attention fatigue” once ballot papers are counted.
For now, cautious optimism prevails in Bangui’s dusty streets, where campaign posters jostle with Christmas decorations. The true verdict will emerge months after the vote, when the new government must translate ballots into better governance. Minusca’s leaner but still determined presence will remain a critical backstop during that transition.
