Ce qu’il faut retenir
Overnight explosions shook Khartoum and Atbara only hours after the Rapid Support Forces signalled acceptance of a new humanitarian truce. Anti-aircraft batteries lit the sky, residents told AFP, underscoring how Sudan’s war has entered a drone-driven phase that complicates already stuttering diplomatic efforts led by Washington, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Cairo.
Drone strikes rattle Khartoum and Atbara
Khartoum, nominally under army control, was jolted awake by the low buzz of unmanned aircraft followed by sharp detonations near the Al-Shajara military complex and a nearby power station, according to multiple neighbourhood accounts relayed to AFP.
Three hundred kilometres to the north, residents of Atbara reported fires after air-defence units intercepted incoming drones. The embers, still visible at dawn, reinforced fears that the conflict’s geographical arc is widening beyond the traditional front lines of Khartoum State and Darfur.
A fragile truce before it starts
On Thursday the RSF made a surprise statement endorsing a cessation of hostilities framework first floated in September by the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. The army-led Sovereign Council, however, reacted cautiously, citing what spokesman Osman Abufatima Adam Mohammed called the RSF’s “zero record” of respecting previous pauses.
Military officials argue that every lull since April 2023 has been exploited by the paramilitary movement to regroup, rearm or push into new territory. The bitter memory of failed Jeddah talks, suspended last year after mutual accusations of bad faith, hangs over the present initiative.
The regional mediation puzzle
The four-state platform is itself contested. Khartoum voices discomfort with Abu Dhabi’s seat at the table, alleging Emirati arms flows to its rival, a claim UN experts have deemed credible even as the UAE issues repeated denials.
Regional observers note that Cairo’s priorities differ, centred on Nile security and curbing the spillover of refugees, while Washington seeks to prevent a full state collapse that could reverberate across the Red Sea corridor.
Humanitarian stakes and famine warning
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, a UN-backed monitoring tool, confirmed this week that pockets of famine are emerging in Gezira and Darfur where fighting has paralyzed planting, trade and aid corridors.
Some twelve million people have already fled their homes and the war’s death toll, estimated by US officials at 150,000, continues to climb. Drone attacks on power infrastructure risk worsening water and health crises as the hot season approaches.
Military calculus after el-Fasher
Analysts link the RSF’s sudden openness to a truce with its recent capture of el-Fasher, the last army bastion in Darfur after an eighteen-month siege. With western Sudan now largely under its control, the group seeks international legitimacy without ceding battlefield gains.
Army commanders, for their part, appear unwilling to sign while the balance of power is so lopsided. They are betting that a sustained drone-defence campaign and discreet rearmament through Port Sudan could gradually erode RSF momentum.
Scenarios for 2024 ceasefire talks
Diplomats consulted by the African Union outline three broad trajectories. The first sees shuttle mediation delivering a monitored pause by mid-year, hinged on rapid humanitarian access and international observers at key airports.
A second path envisages a prolonged military stalemate in which drones and artillery intensify civilian suffering but neither side breaks. A darker scenario, feared by relief agencies, would be the army’s withdrawal from the capital and a Libyan-style mosaic of rival authorities.
Calendrier
Envoys plan to reconvene in Jeddah within weeks, ahead of the African Union summit scheduled for late February, where Sudan will dominate the peace and security agenda; a follow-up session in Cairo is pencilled for April if progress is recorded.
Acteurs
Beyond the two belligerents, the roster of movers includes Saudi General Ahmed al-Asiri, US Special Envoy Tom Perriello, AU High Representative Mohamed El-Hacen Lebatt and Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, each balancing distinct security and reputational stakes in any cessation of hostilities.
Multilateral levers at the UN
In New York, Sudan’s file has shifted from the Security Council’s formal agenda to ad-hoc briefings, but diplomats confirm that a draft resolution mandating sanctions for drone supplies is circulating, spearheaded by Britain and Ghana.
Russia and China have signalled skepticism, citing sovereignty concerns, while Gabon and Mozambique are pressing for carve-outs that would protect commercial drone imports cleared through Port Sudan.
