Sudan’s El-Fasher Flashpoint: Civilians Trapped as RSF Advance

Ce qu’il faut retenir

The claimed capture of El-Fasher by the Rapid Support Forces marks a severe turn in Sudan’s civil war. If verified, the loss of North Darfur’s last government stronghold would deepen an already dire humanitarian crisis, force new mass displacements and test the resolve of regional and multilateral actors calling for civilian protection.

Context: El-Fasher’s strategic weight in Darfur

El-Fasher stands at the crossroads of trade routes linking eastern Sudan to Libya and Chad. For more than a year the city, home to some 300,000 people, has endured a grinding siege imposed by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo’s RSF. Its fall would open a land bridge for the paramilitaries across Darfur and threaten remaining government pockets.

Chronology of the siege and breakthrough

Since April 2023, when fighting erupted between the national army and the RSF, North Darfur has seen intermittent clashes. In May this year artillery shelling tightened the cordon, while July’s UN survey recorded acute malnutrition in forty percent of children under five. On 26 October the RSF announced it had overrun key army positions, a claim still unconfirmed by Khartoum.

Humanitarian stakes for 300,000 residents

Supply lines for food, medicine and fuel have been cut for months. UN relief chief Martin Griffiths warns that famine “is no longer a distant risk but an imminent reality” as markets empty and water networks grind to a halt. Médecins Sans Frontières reports surgical wards overwhelmed by shrapnel injuries while stocks of anaesthetics are exhausted.

UN calls and António Guterres’s message

Secretary-General António Guterres labeled the development a “terrible escalation” and urged an immediate halt to external arms transfers feeding the conflict. He appealed for safe corridors allowing civilians to flee “in dignity” and for aid convoys to enter unhindered. Without access, he cautioned, mortality rates could “mirror the darkest chapters of Darfur’s past”.

RSF pledges versus precedent

In a statement broadcast from Omdurman, RSF spokesperson Mohamed el-Mahjoub promised protected passage for residents wishing to leave and security for those who stay. Yet rights monitors recall earlier RSF operations in Geneina and Kreinik where similar assurances preceded targeted killings of non-Arab communities, looting of camps and the torching of markets. Trust remains thin among displaced civilians.

Regional echoes of a protracted war

Neighbouring Chad already shelters over a million Sudanese refugees and fears another influx. The African Union Peace and Security Council places Sudan high on its emergency agenda, while IGAD mediators struggle to convene face-to-face talks. Analysts note that porous borders allow flows of small arms and mercenaries, complicating enforcement of any prospective embargo.

Actors and interests shaping the battlefield

General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s army still controls eastern garrisons and the Port Sudan corridor, banking on international legitimacy. The RSF, flush with revenues from Darfur’s artisanal gold mines, seeks leverage before any negotiation. Gulf and Sahel states, accused of supplying drones, deny involvement but quietly weigh the impact on their own security and trade corridors.

International diplomacy: options on the table

At the United Nations, Ireland and Ghana push for a Security Council resolution demanding a ceasefire and sanctioning individuals obstructing aid. Russia and China argue that punitive measures risk hardening positions. With consensus elusive, the secretariat explores a humanitarian carve-out similar to the cross-border mechanism used in Syria, but needs sovereign consent that Khartoum has yet to grant.

Scenarios for the weeks ahead

If the RSF consolidates, aid agencies fear a repeat of Geneina’s April mass killings, this time on a metropolitan scale. A negotiated withdrawal could spare the city yet remains uncertain amid deep mistrust. Prolonged urban warfare would devastate civilian infrastructure and could fragment command structures on both sides, opening space for militant splinter groups.

What next for Sudanese civilians

For El-Fasher’s residents the immediate priority is survival: escaping crossfire, finding food and reuniting families divided by front lines. Diplomatic statements offer little solace without tangible corridors and monitors on the ground. As one displaced teacher told Radio Dabanga, “We live hour to hour, praying the world’s promises arrive before the bullets.”