Ce qu’il faut retenir
The United Nations has branded Madagascar’s October power shift an unconstitutional change of government, echoing the African Union’s suspension of the island from all continental activities. Yet the Southern African Development Community, the European Union and France stop short of outright condemnation, favouring inclusive dialogue before deciding on sanctions.
- Ce qu’il faut retenir
- International Responses: Condemnation, Caution and Silence
- Contexte: Roots of the October Power Shift
- Calendrier: From Protests to Military Inauguration
- Acteurs: Military Leaders, Youth and External Partners
- Scenarios: Dialogue, Isolation or Managed Transition
- Socioeconomic Reverberations and Soft Power Stakes
- Legal Challenge: Crafting a Constitutional Roadmap
Antananarivo’s new leadership scrambles to place its actions within a legal frame, hoping to shield a poverty-stricken population from punitive measures that could freeze donor aid. The length of the transition and the composition of the next cabinet will determine whether partners embrace engagement or isolation.
International Responses: Condemnation, Caution and Silence
UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged an immediate return to constitutional order, framing the takeover as a threat to rule of law (UN press release). The AU followed with a swift suspension, signalling zero tolerance for military seizures, even in the face of popular grievances.
By contrast, SADC’s extraordinary Troika summit merely called for an inclusive national dialogue and dispatched a fact-finding mission. The bloc, chaired this year by Madagascar itself, stresses regional ownership of the crisis and resists premature labels while evidence is still gathered.
Neither the EU nor France employed the word “coup” in statements that underscored civil liberties and deferred to African mechanisms. Diplomats in Paris and Brussels argue privately that sanctions work best when regional consensus exists, a condition not yet met.
Contexte: Roots of the October Power Shift
Weeks of youth-led protests over electricity, water and living costs eroded civilian authority in Antananarivo. Organisers from the Gen Z movement accused the previous administration of ignoring basic needs, creating fertile ground for the army’s intervention.
Colonel Randrianirina positioned the military as guardian of social justice, pledging to address grievances faster than an electoral calendar could. Critics, however, note that similar pledges in past Malagasy transitions struggled to survive beyond the honeymoon period.
Calendrier: From Protests to Military Inauguration
16 October: UN headquarters calls for constitutional restoration after reports of a pending handover.
17 October morning: AU confirms suspension, citing its Lomé Declaration on Unconstitutional Changes.
17 October afternoon: Randrianirina is sworn in as President of the Refoundation, promising early elections once stability is secured.
By 20 October: SADC fact-finding team expected in Antananarivo, tasked with verifying timelines and civilian safeguards.
Acteurs: Military Leaders, Youth and External Partners
Randrianirina’s inner circle blends mid-ranking officers and technocrats aiming to reassure donors. Finance officials are already drafting a budget addendum to keep IMF-supported social programmes afloat.
On the streets, students such as Fatima voice frustration at seeing genuine socio-economic demands conflated with a coup. Others, like activist Elliott Randriamandrato, call on international institutions to accompany rather than punish the transition.
Paris, Brussels and Washington monitor developments but await SADC’s report before adjusting aid pipelines. China and India, both large investors in mining and telecoms, have kept public silence, signalling business-first pragmatism.
Scenarios: Dialogue, Isolation or Managed Transition
Diplomatic sources outline three plausible pathways. The first is a negotiated roadmap endorsed by SADC and later by the AU, coupling a short transitional period with a credible electoral calendar. This would unlock gradual donor re-engagement.
A second scenario involves protracted negotiations, during which aid is partially suspended, heightening hardship and possibly radicalising street protests.
The least desired outcome—full isolation—would follow if the junta drags its feet on elections or represses dissent. In that case, comprehensive sanctions could emulate previous AU and EU precedents in Mali and Guinea.
Socioeconomic Reverberations and Soft Power Stakes
Nearly four out of five Malagasy live below the poverty line; any freeze of budget support could threaten school feeding, health subsidies and rural infrastructure. Civil society leaders warn that sanctions might strengthen hard-liners who can rally nationalist sentiment against external pressure.
Madagascar’s rich cultural heritage and environmental assets are key soft-power levers. The new authorities have signalled continuity in conservation partnerships, hoping eco-tourism projects can remain insulated from political turbulence.
Legal Challenge: Crafting a Constitutional Roadmap
Government jurists are revisiting Madagascar’s 2010 Charter of the Transition, seeking clauses that could legitimise a military-led interim authority. Scholars argue that only a consensual, time-bound roadmap ratified by parliament or an inclusive forum can withstand international scrutiny.
For Randrianirina, negotiations with the AU will be decisive. “It is normal that the AU reacts,” he conceded, adding that talks are needed to “find common ground.” Whether that dialogue produces a credible constitutional horizon will determine Madagascar’s place in regional and global arenas.
