Ce qu’il faut retenir
Prime Minister Narendra Modi lands in Addis Ababa on 16 December for a two-day state visit that could redefine India’s African footprint. Ethiopia offers a rare mix of diplomatic leverage—hosting the African Union—and untapped reserves of critical minerals. Delhi seeks supply security and political reach, while Ethiopia eyes Indian capital, technology and entrée to Asia’s markets.
Contexte
India has courted African partners since the first India-Africa Forum Summit in 2008, yet its engagement often lacked strategic depth. The recent expansion of the BRICS bloc, which welcomed Ethiopia in 2024, now supplies a multilateral platform that Delhi wants to shape from within. Meanwhile, China’s long economic shadow in East Africa prompts India to sharpen its competitive edge.
Calendrier
Modi’s stop in Ethiopia sits midway in a tour that also includes the United Arab Emirates and Kenya. In Addis Ababa, talks with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are slated for 16-17 December. MoUs covering mining cooperation, pharmaceutical production and digital services are drafted for signature before the Indian delegation departs on the evening of the 17th, according to officials familiar with the planning.
Acteurs
Beyond the two leaders, India’s delegation features senior executives from state-owned KABIL, Bharat Electronics and Sun Pharma. On the Ethiopian side, ministers of Mines, Finance and Innovation will negotiate project pipelines ranging from lithium exploration in Oromia to cotton-to-garment corridors around Hawassa. The African Union Commission is expected to host a courtesy call that underscores Ethiopia’s institutional weight.
Strategic stakes in Addis
For New Delhi, Ethiopia is a continental gateway less exposed to maritime chokepoints than West African hubs. Addis Ababa’s Bole Airport, already a logistics centre for UN peacekeeping, could complement India’s ‘Security and Growth for All in the Region’ doctrine by offering an inland node connected to Djibouti’s port through a modern rail link.
Mining potential and rare-earth diplomacy
Geological surveys identify Ethiopian pegmatite belts rich in lithium, niobium and dysprosium—inputs vital for electric vehicles and wind turbines. While regulatory hurdles persist, Delhi’s latest embassy study concludes that joint ventures with Ethiopian state miners could reach production within five years. Analysts in New Delhi see a chance to hedge against supply risks concentrated in China-controlled value chains.
Industrial renaissance and AfCFTA access
More than 175 Indian firms already operate in Ethiopia, predominantly in textiles. The Modi-Abiy talks seek to revive earlier agricultural investments stalled by tax issues and shift attention to value-adding industries. Ethiopia’s ratification of the African Continental Free Trade Area offers Indian manufacturers duty-free entry to a market of 1.3 billion consumers, amplifying the attraction of local assembly plants.
Soft power and multilateral leverage
Delhi’s diplomacy blends commerce with culture. A new Indian cultural centre, to be announced during the visit, will host language, film and yoga programmes that complement scholarships at Addis Ababa University. Ethiopia’s BRICS+ membership also gives India an ally in debates on global financial reform, potentially tightening coordination in forums such as the G20 and World Bank.
Security considerations
Ethiopia’s role in African Union peace operations aligns with India’s record as a major troop contributor to UN missions. Defence cooperation remains modest but could expand into cyber-security training and counter-piracy coordination in the Gulf of Aden. Officials note that any agreement will respect Ethiopia’s policy of non-alignment and India’s principle of demand-driven partnership.
Scénarios
If mining agreements materialise, India could secure a diversified stream of critical minerals while Ethiopia receives technology transfer and infrastructure funding. A second, less ambitious scenario confines outcomes to incremental investments in textiles and pharmaceuticals. A third, unlikely scenario would see negotiations stall over regulatory concerns; yet both capitals signal a commitment to tangible deliverables, suggesting momentum will be maintained.
