Ivory Coast braces as Ouattara’s fourth-term debate goes global

Ce qu’il faut retenir

A motion from Laurent Gbagbo’s African Peoples Party–Côte d’Ivoire urges the international community to declare President Alassane Ouattara’s anticipated fourth candidacy unconstitutional. The ruling RHDP dismisses the call, citing a 2016 charter reboot. Meanwhile, the United Nations and regional bodies strike a cautious note, framing the 2025 race as a test of stability in West Africa.

International scrutiny of Abidjan’s constitutional debate

By appealing directly to New York, Addis Ababa and Brussels, the PPA-CI elevates what began as a domestic legal argument into a multilateral question of democratic norms. Party officials argue that silence from partners would amount to complicity, urging “firm and coherent action” to safeguard the two-term limit they say is enshrined in the 2016 Constitution.

Gbagbo’s diplomatic offensive gains momentum

Former president Laurent Gbagbo leverages his continental networks, cultivated during previous mediation roles, to amplify the motion. According to party strategists, letters were dispatched this month to the UN Secretary-General and the AU Commission chair, framing the issue not as partisan rivalry but as a precedent for term-limit adherence across Africa.

Contexte

In 2020 the Constitutional Council validated Ouattara’s third bid, reasoning that the 2016 constitutional overhaul restarted the term counter. The ruling provoked unrest but was ultimately accepted after Ouattara’s landslide re-election. With speculation mounting that he will run again in 2025, opposition figures fear the legal logic could be repeated, justifying a fourth mandate.

RHDP insists the electoral clock is ticking normally

Government spokesman Kobénan Kouassi Adjoumani counters that the electoral process is on schedule, candidates are mobilising and independent institutions will vet eligibility. “The Council’s jurisprudence is clear,” he told local media, underscoring that political actors should focus on policy rather than legality already settled by the court.

United Nations urges restraint and dialogue

Wrapping up a week-long mission in Abidjan, UN envoy Leonardo Santos Simão met with government, opposition and civil society leaders. He praised economic progress but warned that divisive rhetoric could erode social cohesion. “Elections are always a challenge,” he said, urging political actors to turn the 2025 ballot into an opportunity to reinforce peace and stability.

African Union’s balancing act

The AU Peace and Security Council has yet to schedule a formal discussion, but diplomats say informal consultations are under way. Addis Ababa faces a dilemma: condemning a long-standing head of state could alienate a key economic partner, yet ignoring term-limit debates risks accusations of double standards after recent coups justified by ‘constitutional coups’ elsewhere.

European Union follows with ‘principled pragmatism’

EU officials in Brussels indicate they are monitoring developments while prioritising cooperation on security and cocoa sustainability. Privately, some diplomats note that a clear stance on mandates could complicate relations amid Russia’s expanding influence in nearby Sahel states. Publicly, the bloc emphasises support for “inclusive, transparent and credible” elections.

Calendrier

The independent electoral commission is expected to publish the provisional voters’ roll in early 2024. Candidate registration should open in the second semester of 2024, with the presidential poll slated for October 2025. Any constitutional challenge would need to be lodged within eight days of the Council’s final candidate list, leaving little room for late diplomatic interventions.

Acteurs

Key figures include President Alassane Ouattara, whose decision remains officially undisclosed; former president Laurent Gbagbo, whose civil rights were restored last year; and former premier Henri Konan Bédié’s PDCI, still weighing alliances after his death. Civil society coalitions such as Indigo Côte d’Ivoire and WANEP are preparing parallel vote-tabulation projects to bolster transparency.

Scénarios

Observers outline three broad paths. Should Ouattara decline to run, the RHDP could rally behind a successor, easing tension. If he seeks a fourth term and the court validates it, opposition forces may unify around a single challenger, making international observation crucial. A third, more unstable trajectory would see legal disputes spill into the streets, testing the readiness of ECOWAS and AU mediation.

Beyond Abidjan: regional implications

From Senegal to Benin, debates on term limits continue to animate politics. Analysts warn that how Ivory Coast addresses its own constitutional question could ripple across a region where adherence to democratic norms is often cited by coup leaders. A firm, transparent process in Abidjan might therefore reinforce diplomatic efforts to curb extra-constitutional power grabs elsewhere.