Ce qu’il faut retenir
A French military aircraft discreetly evacuated President Andry Rajoelina from Madagascar on 12 October 2025 after an arrangement with French leader Emmanuel Macron. Paris maintains that it is not meddling in the island’s internal affairs. The operation comes as demonstrations that erupted on 25 September over rolling water and electricity cuts have swollen into vociferous calls for the head of state to step down. Further information is still emerging.
Contexte de la contestation sociale
Madagascar’s long-simmering frustration over infrastructure breakdown reached a boiling point when widespread outages plunged homes and businesses into darkness and parched neighbourhoods in late September. The first marches, initially focused on utility grievances, quickly gathered momentum as security forces used force to disperse crowds, deepening mistrust toward the authorities.
As protesters’ slogans shifted from technical complaints to open political demands, the administration sought to project calm while deploying policing units across Antananarivo. Yet every new power cut became a reminder of unaddressed structural issues, tightening the spiral between public anger and official counter-measures.
Calendrier d’une escalade
25 September 2025 marks the onset of rallies centred on water and electricity shortages. Over the following fortnight, gatherings multiplied in provincial towns before converging on the capital, where security cordons were erected around key government sites.
During the night of 11 to 12 October, a French military aircraft was positioned for what sources describe as a pre-agreed extraction. By dawn on 12 October, Rajoelina had boarded the plane and left Malagasy airspace, leaving his entourage to manage the immediate political vacuum.
Acteurs clés en première ligne
President Rajoelina, whose mandate has often been defined by ambitious infrastructure promises, now confronts the paradox of being removed from the very streets he once walked as a popular mayor. His physical absence adds uncertainty to an already volatile tableau.
The protest movement, diffuse and largely leaderless, draws energy from neighbourhood committees and online networks angered by basic service disruptions. Its lack of central coordination complicates any attempt at formal negotiation yet also makes repression less predictable in its effects.
France’s role is the most scrutinised. Officials in Paris emphasise that the flight was a humanitarian precaution arranged “in agreement” with Rajoelina and deny any intention to influence the balance of power on the ground. Nevertheless, the image of a French military jet spiriting away a sitting African leader resonates strongly in public opinion.
Scénarios possibles pour Antananarivo
A first path envisions a negotiated interim authority that would address short-term service delivery while preparing a political dialogue. The feasibility of such a track depends on whether Rajoelina signals willingness to engage from abroad or seeks an eventual return under firmer security conditions.
A second, more turbulent scenario would see street mobilisation persist or intensify, challenging any caretaker structure and risking a spiral of confrontation between protesters and security forces. Without clear leadership, spontaneous action could outpace institutional response.
Finally, the mere fact of French logistical assistance may push other external partners to reassess their posture, even as Paris repeats that it does not intervene. The optics could either encourage mediation efforts or, conversely, feed narratives of foreign interference, shaping public sentiment in unpredictable ways.
Vers une sortie de crise ?
The president’s evacuation creates room for de-escalation but simultaneously underscores the depth of the legitimacy deficit highlighted by weeks of outages and repression. Whether calm or confrontation prevails will hinge on the government’s ability to restore essential services swiftly and communicate a credible political roadmap to citizens demanding change.
A locator map of Madagascar and a diagram of the evacuation flight path will accompany this article, together with sourced photographs of the protests. These visuals aim to provide readers with a clearer grasp of the geography and scale of an unfolding crisis whose next chapter is, for now, unwritten.
