Ce qu’il faut retenir
Fighting erupted before dawn on 21 September in Nzibira, a gold-bearing township of South Kivu, and quickly spread to Katobi in neighboring North Kivu. In both flashpoints, government troops and AFC/M23 insurgents traded heavy and small-arms fire, breaking the ceasefire brokered in Doha and Washington.
The new hostilities forced civilians to flee toward Pinga and Masisi while the Congolese army shelled rebel positions around Bibwe. Mediators remain hopeful of salvaging peace talks set to resume after the UN General Assembly, yet commanders on the ground prepare for protracted engagements.
Battles Ignite in South and North Kivu
Witnesses in Nzibira report that insurgents penetrated the market square around 03:00, seizing shops for several hours before units of the Forces armées de la République démocratique du Congo (FARDC) counter-attacked. Mortar impacts scarred corrugated roofs, and by sunrise, smoke curled above abandoned mine pits on the town’s outskirts.
Simultaneously, roughly twenty kilometres north of Pinga, automatic rifle bursts echoed through the forest near Katobi. Locals said the AFC/M23 had regrouped after a brief retreat on Saturday, exploiting thick vegetation to skirt FARDC trenches and test the army’s contested supply lines along National Route 3.
FARDC artillery batteries responded from ridges overlooking Bibwe, firing dozens of 122 mm rounds. A military spokesman claimed the barrage was ‘preventive’ and designed to prevent the rebels from linking their Walikale and Masisi positions, a manoeuvre that would threaten the strategic Goma–Bukavu corridor.
Doha Mediation Under Pressure
The renewed clashes broke out barely a week after government and AFC/M23 delegates left Doha following what facilitators branded ‘constructive’ exchanges. Qatari officials contacted by RFI insist that virtual consultations continue and that face-to-face dialogue should resume in the Gulf capital two weeks after the UN debates.
Washington, which co-chairs the process, has echoed Doha’s optimism, arguing that localised violations do not automatically derail a largely unsigned ceasefire framework. Yet diplomats concede that each skirmish erodes confidence and risks drawing in spoilers who see little advantage in talking while the front lines remain fluid.
Contexte
Eastern Congo’s mineral belts have long provided both motive and means for rebellion. Since its 2022 resurgence, the AFC/M23 has capitalised on grievances over revenue-sharing, integrating disaffected fighters and controlling artisanal shafts around Rutshuru. FARDC, stretched over multiple theatres, relies on rotating brigades and aerial firepower to offset manpower gaps.
Calendrier
The Doha document sketched a 90-day roadmap: silent period, monitored disengagement, security guarantees, and a donor-backed reconstruction fund. Week one—now ending in gunfire—was supposed to test a freeze of offensive operations. The second fortnight, beginning after the UNGA, envisages humanitarian corridors and the first cantonments.
Acteurs
On the government side, General Peter Chirimwami commands the Sukola II offensive, backed by special forces and drone reconnaissance units supplied by external partners. Political cover comes from Kinshasa’s delegation headed by Deputy Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Bemba, who argues that sustained pressure remains the only language the M23 fully understands.
Across the table, the AFC/M23 fields spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka and military chief Sultani Makenga, both insisting on amnesty guarantees and integration within a reformed army. Qatari envoy Mutlaq al-Qahtani, flanked by US Special Advisor Mike Hammer, plays the go-between, gauging whether battlefield signals still permit political compromises.
Scénarios
If firing subsides in the coming days, negotiators could use the UNGA sidelines to lock in a phased pullback, leveraging humanitarian access as an early confidence-builder. This best-case scenario would allow Qatar to host a signing ceremony by late October, unlocking pledges from the African Development Bank and EU.
Should hostilities intensify, regional patience may fray. The Southern African Development Community’s standby force, already present in Goma, could seek a more robust mandate, while Kigali, Kampala and Bujumbura would eye troop movements along their borders. A widened arena would complicate diplomacy and raise the financial cost of every shelled hillside.
Humanitarian Indicators Deteriorate
Local aid workers warn that repeated displacements around Nzibira have disrupted the school year and contaminated water points. Médecins Sans Frontières teams treated shrapnel wounds but also a surge in cholera cases, a reminder that every artillery round produces invisible fallout long after the smoke clears.
Implications for Regional Stability
Even as attention centres on Kivu, Gulf-brokered diplomacy has become a testing ground for conflict resolution models that could inspire other African theatres. A successful Doha track would validate discreet, resource-backed engagement that respects national ownership. Failure, however, risks reinforcing the view that armed groups can still mint leverage through muzzle flashes.
