Ce qu’il faut retenir
At 6,000 USD a tonne, cocoa ends 2025 worth half its 2024 peak of 12,000 USD. The violent swing underscores an industry in which Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana supply 60 % of global beans yet shoulder most price risk. Calls are growing inside both capitals to widen their existing alliance to cushion future shocks.
Price whiplash shakes producer margins
The 12-month slide from an all-time high to a three-year low shows how quickly speculative fervour can flip. For top growers, windfall revenues booked in 2024 have narrowed sharply, complicating budget planning and farm-gate payments. The volatility also unsettles grinders and chocolatiers, who rushed to lock in volumes at record prices only to face a sudden market reversal.
Abidjan–Accra compact under scrutiny
Since 2019, the two neighbours have coordinated bean sales and introduced a living-income differential. The mechanism worked when prices soared, yet its effectiveness weakens once futures retreat. Officials concede privately that a duo commanding 60 % of supply is still exposed when the other 40 % can be mobilised quickly by traders in search of cheaper origins.
Why a broader bloc matters
Economies of scale are one argument, but political signalling is paramount. Expanding the pact to additional West African producers would send a message that price ceilings and floors will be defended collectively. Supporters believe a consolidated front could make it costlier for buyers to shop around whenever Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana attempt to steer negotiations.
Potential pathways for extension
Diplomats sketch two non-exclusive tracks. The first is a formal charter inviting neighbouring exporters to endorse common sales windows and quality standards. The second is a looser consultative forum focused on transparency of stock levels and farm-gate pricing. Either route would demand new dispute-settlement rules so that individual marketing boards cannot undercut joint positions.
Market signals after the crash
The 2025 dip is unlikely to erase memories of last year’s super-cycle. Traders still factor tighter land availability, aging trees and climate stress into medium-term forecasts. Yet the correction underscores that momentum can flip faster than agronomic fundamentals. Investors will watch whether a broader alliance emerges before speculative money floods back at the first sign of supply jitters.
Calendar of critical junctions
Harvest declarations due in October and the main industry summit scheduled for November offer two staged opportunities to unveil new coordination steps. Any announcement before futures rollover dates could amplify its market impact. Conversely, silence beyond those milestones risks diluting the credibility of calls for collective action.
Actors and leverage
National marketing boards set the tone, but farm-level cooperatives retain moral authority. Multinationals, for their part, control processing assets and hedging desks that influence benchmark prices. Civil-society voices stress that any expanded pact must translate into traceable benefits for growers rather than re-pricing gains captured at export level.
Scenarios in play
If Abidjan and Accra secure at least one additional signatory, markets could re-rate upside risk, potentially lifting quotes back above 7,500 USD. Should talks stall, futures may drift lower toward pre-2024 averages, shifting bargaining power to buyers. A middle-ground scenario sees incremental cooperation without formal accession, yielding only modest price stabilisation.
