Ce qu’il faut retenir
Two weeks after the 26 November coup in Guinea-Bissau, opposition leaders gathered in Dakar demand that ECOWAS declare Fernando Dias da Costa the legitimate president and escort him to the Palácio Presidencial. They argue a decisive, non-military resolution at the bloc’s 14 December extraordinary summit can still reverse the putsch and restore constitutional order.
Stakes for ECOWAS credibility
The speed with which ECOWAS threatened force against a putschist attempt in Benin has become the new yardstick for its crisis management. According to activist Abdou Aziz Cissé in Dakar, anything less than comparable firmness in Guinea-Bissau would signal “an unfortunate inconsistency” and erode faith in the organisation’s collective security promise.
For the bloc’s heads of state, the dilemma is stark: endorse electoral sovereignty, or allow a precedent where armed officers override ballots. Regional diplomacy has long relied on deterrence more than deployment, so a clear communiqué and a standby escort could suffice without firing a shot.
Dakar, rear guard of the Bissau opposition
Senegal’s capital has become a safe haven for dissidents who slipped out of Bissau amid arrests. Dara Fonseca Fernandez, from Dias da Costa’s campaign team, told reporters that copies of destroyed vote tallies exist in the regions and can support a rapid proclamation of results.
The exiles insist the junta’s leader, General Horta N’tam, should return to barracks once ECOWAS recognises the rightful winner. For them, the crisis is not primarily military; it is administrative, requiring political will and an escort to the presidential gates.
Contexte
Umaro Sissoco Embaló, ousted on 26 November, had himself come to power through elections accepted by ECOWAS. His sudden removal by soldiers unsettles a region already juggling transitions in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso. Unlike those Sahelian cases, the Bissau file involves a completed presidential poll whose paperwork, though partially destroyed, remains traceable.
Acteurs
Fernando Dias da Costa, the main contender against Embaló, is central to the opposition’s appeal. Dara Fonseca Fernandez amplifies his claim from exile. On the civic side, the pan-African network Africtivistes, represented by Abdou Aziz Cissé, frames the dispute as a litmus test for regional governance. Inside Guinea-Bissau, General Horta N’tam commands the junta now facing continental scrutiny.
Calendrier
9 December saw the Dakar gathering that sharpened media focus ahead of ECOWAS’s extraordinary summit on 14 December. That meeting is portrayed by the exiles as “the final chance” for a peaceful rollback. Any delay beyond mid-December risks normalising the coup and complicating future mediation efforts.
The Benin benchmark
ECOWAS’s quick announcement of standby troops during the recent attempted coup in Cotonou has raised expectations. Observers compare the immediacy of that response with the measured tone so far on Guinea-Bissau, where statements have emphasised dialogue over deterrence.
Cissé warns that selective vigilance could embolden would-be mutineers elsewhere. In his words, regional solidarity must be “indivisible” to retain its preventive power. The credibility gap, he argues, widens whenever similar infractions meet dissimilar sanctions.
What next before 14 December
Diplomats in Dakar suggest that a concise ECOWAS resolution could instruct its standby force to escort Dias da Costa to the palace while guaranteeing Embaló’s safety, thereby avoiding bloodshed. The exiles, for their part, say their role ends the moment ballots are respected.
Logistics hinge on the availability of certified copies of regional vote tallies. Fonseca Fernandez claims these records can be compiled swiftly, allowing the summit to base its decision on documented figures rather than contested narratives.
Scenarios on the table
If ECOWAS issues a firm directive and deploys an escort, the junta may acquiesce, restoring civilian rule without confrontation. A softer stance could translate into protracted negotiations that gradually legitimise the coup. For the opposition in Dakar, the difference between those paths will define not only Guinea-Bissau’s trajectory but also the authority of ECOWAS itself.
