Why Tshisekedi Now Extends a Hand to Kagame

Diplomatic Overture in Brussels

Félix Tshisekedi’s friendly gesture toward Paul Kagame on 9 October in Brussels caught many observers off guard. After months of abrasive rhetoric, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s president opted for public conciliation, betting that a personal channel to Kigali could unlock a conflict that shows no sign of easing in South Kivu.

Stalled Washington Peace Accord

Kinshasa and Kigali signed a United States-brokered peace accord on 27 June. Three months later, implementation is frozen. The document which promised security guarantees and a regional economic framework remains largely aspirational, exposing the limits of external mediation when ground realities and mutual distrust outweigh diplomatic paperwork.

Military Realities in South Kivu

Since the summer, the Congolese army has ceded Nzibira, Luntukulu, Chulwe and Lubimbe to insurgents. Fighting now stretches across Walungu and Kabare, threatening Mwenga and Shabunda. These losses create pressure on Kinshasa to adjust its approach: battlefield setbacks undermine confidence at home and dilute leverage in any forthcoming negotiations.

Mutual Accusations at Diplomatic Deadlock

Kinshasa insists the rebel coalition AFC/M23 lacks the manpower and logistics to seize towns unaided, pointing an unwavering finger at Rwanda. Kigali, in turn, blames persistent ties between the Congolese army and the anti-Rwandan FDLR militia. Each side conditions progress on the other’s concessions, producing a predictable deadlock.

Economic Layer of the Crisis

Behind the security narrative lies a sharp economic contrast. Washington’s envisioned mining partnership includes both neighbors, yet first-mover advantages have favored Rwanda. In late September, the United States received its inaugural shipment of Rwandan tungsten, while eastern Congolese mining zones remain trapped in insecurity. Frustration in Kinshasa is therefore as commercial as it is military.

The Doha Mediation Dilemma

Qatar’s Doha track demands rebel participation, a red line for Tshisekedi, who fears that governance, decentralisation and combatant integration debates could reopen constitutional questions. When Kenya led earlier talks in August 2024, M23 was excluded; in Doha and Luanda, Rwanda insists on its presence. The result is an unwelcome but obligatory forum for Kinshasa.

Complex Agenda, Limited Time

American envoy Massad Boulos recently outlined nine thematic clusters to be addressed. Some, he noted, are constitutional and “will take time”, while others could close within weeks. The sheer breadth of the agenda magnifies the cost of delay, encouraging Tshisekedi to test whether direct presidential engagement with Kagame can shortcut bureaucracy.

Strategic Pressure on Kinshasa

Every week of combat deepens humanitarian hardship and chips away at the credibility of the Congolese government. By offering an olive branch in Brussels, Tshisekedi signals urgency: an accelerated peace, even if imperfect, may be preferable to a prolonged stalemate that benefits neither his domestic standing nor the economy.

Kigali’s Firm Preconditions

Rwanda’s response remains unchanged. On Friday morning, officials restated that durable peace requires negotiations with AFC/M23 under the Doha framework already accepted by Kinshasa. Kagame’s camp believes international opinion will eventually see M23 as an indispensable stakeholder, not merely a proxy force, and therefore refuses bilateral gestures that bypass the rebels.

Optics and Accountability

Kinshasa also exploits visibility. By extending a hand it anticipates refusal, aiming to spotlight Kigali’s perceived responsibility. A presidential adviser told RFI that Brussels allowed the world to “know Paul Kagame’s role”. The gambit risks minimal cost: if rejected, Tshisekedi garners moral capital; if accepted, he gains a new negotiation avenue.

Possible Paths Forward

Whether the Brussels overture becomes a turning point depends on two factors: Kagame’s readiness to distance himself from M23 demands and Kinshasa’s willingness to entertain broader dialogue parameters. Until then, South Kivu will likely witness further clashes, while diplomats juggle Washington documents and Doha schedules in search of elusive traction.